The May-2024 NYMEX natural gas contract fell 7.9 cents lower to $1.691 per MMBtu after LNG feed gas declined to under 11 Bcf per day and as weather forecasts called for comfortable temperatures for the last week of the month. The May-2024 WTI crude oil contract edged 25 cents lower to $85.41 per barrel as traders breathed a sigh of relief after Israel fended off a large-scale air assault by Iran. Equity markets lost ground even after the Commerce Department reported a stronger-than-expected 0.7% increase in retail sales.
Tuesday 4/16
Natural gas gained 4.1 cents to $1.732 as the supply and demand balance remained relatively unchanged after a dip in LNG export volumes offset production losses. Oil edged 5 cents lower to $85.36 even after the U.S. announced plans to hit Iran with new sanctions after its weekend attack on Israel. Equities looked to snap a six-day losing streak after a major healthcare provider reported better-than-expected revenue for the first quarter.
Wednesday 4/17
Natural gas gained 1.3 cents to end the day at $1.885 ahead of the next day’s storage report, which was expected to show a small 15 Bcf injection into storage. Crude climbed 98 cents higher to $86.21 even after the EIA reported a 5.8-million-barrel increase in oil inventories, a 0.7 mb bump in gasoline stocks, and a 1.7 mb increase in distillates. Equities tumbled lower after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported consumer inflation climbed 0.4% during March.
Thursday 4/18
The cost of natural gas closed 4.5 cents higher at $1.757 after the EIA reported a 50 Bcf build to storage, which was lower than the 5-year average injection and narrowed the surplus to 622 Bcf. Oil settled 4 cents higher at $82.73 on easing Middle East concerns after Israel refrained from immediately striking back against Iran in response to their air assault. Equities were mixed on the day despite a batch of better-thanexpected second quarter corporate earnings releases.
Friday 4/19
Natural gas finished the session 0.5 cents lower at $1.752 as moderate temperatures were expected to limit demand through the end of April. Crude oil climbed 41 cents higher to $83.14 on escalating tensions in the Middle East following Israel’s limited retaliatory strike on Iran. Equities struggled for traction after Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said policymakers would have to be patient before cutting interest rates.
Looking Ahead
Natural gas is likely to move in a narrow range during the shoulder season as demand for cooling and heating declines.
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Jonathan Lee joined ENGIE Impact in 2009 and has produced the Energy Market Watch newsletter for 15 years. He manages the Energy & Sustainability Analytics Intelligence team, focusing on market intelligence and rate forecasting. Jonathan also has a background in Finance and Marketing.
Rick Margolin manages client projects towards the development of voluntary and compliance sustainability programs, evaluation of project opportunities, adoption, implementation and compliance. He also leads tracking of regulatory, legislative and policy environments for impacts on renewables and decarbonization markets.
Jonathan Lee
Manager, Energy & Sustainability Analytics Intelligence
Rick Margolin
Director, Renewables Advisory
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