Natural gas weighed down by growing storage surpluses.
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Monday 3/4
The Apr-2024 NYMEX natural gas contract pressed 8.1 cents higher to $1.916 per MMBtu after EQT, the nation’s largest gas producer, announced a 1 Bcf/day cut to output due to the current supply glut. The Apr-2024 WTI crude oil contract fell $1.23 lower to $78.74 per barrel even after OPEC and its producing allies decided to extend voluntary output cuts to June. Equity markets traded in the red as investors turned a bit cautious after a major tech company incurred a $2 billion antitrust fine by the European Union.
Tuesday 3/5
Natural gas climbed 4.1 cents higher to $1.957 as traders continued to weigh production cuts against forecasts for mild late season heating demand. Crude lost another 59 cents to close at $78.15 even after China pledged to boost economic growth by issuing $139 billion in ultra-long special treasury bonds. Equities tumbled lower as investors took profits near all-time market highs following disappointing tech-sector news.
Wednesday 3/6
The cost of gas edged 2.8 cents lower to $1.929 ahead of the next day’s storage report, which was expected to show a draw around 35 Bcf that would compare to last year’s 72 Bcf draw and the 5-year average 93 Bcf draw. Oil recovered 98 cents to settle at $79.13 after the EIA reported a lowerthan-expected 1.4-million-barrel build to crude inventories. Stocks rebounded after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he believed the central bank’s policy rate was likely at its peak for this tightening cycle.
Thursday 3/7
Natural gas lost 11.1 cents to end the day at $1.818 after the EIA reported a 40 Bcf withdrawal from storage, which widened the surplus to the 5-year average to 551 Bcf. Crude oil dipped 20 cents lower to $78.93 on reports Chinese oil imports declined by 5.7% in February. Equities pushed higher after the Labor Department reported the number of initial jobless claims were unchanged on the week.
Friday 3/8
Natural gas settled 1.3 cents lower at $1.805 as forecasts for mild temperatures continued to weigh on demand expectations. Crude oil slipped 92 cents lower to $78.01 after the Keystone pipeline carrying supplies from Alberta to Nebraska resumed operations following a brief shutdown. Equities lost ground even after the Labor Department reported a higher-than-expected 275,000 jobs were created in February.
Looking Ahead
Energy prices continue to face strong headwinds as the amount of natural gas in storage is over 30% above the five-year average and is likely to further widen in the coming weeks.
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Jonathan Lee joined ENGIE Impact in 2009 and has produced the Energy Market Watch newsletter for 15 years. He manages the Energy & Sustainability Analytics Intelligence team, focusing on market intelligence and rate forecasting. Jonathan also has a background in Finance and Marketing.
Rick Margolin manages client projects towards the development of voluntary and compliance sustainability programs, evaluation of project opportunities, adoption, implementation and compliance. He also leads tracking of regulatory, legislative and policy environments for impacts on renewables and decarbonization markets.
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